盡管氣電在發(fā)展過程中面臨諸多困難，但具備清潔環(huán)保、節(jié)能高效、調(diào)峰能力強(qiáng)等優(yōu)點，具有較大發(fā)展?jié)摿?，?nèi)外部環(huán)境的改善也為我國氣電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展帶來了良好機(jī)遇。

　　Although gas power faces many difficulties in its development, it has the advantages of being clean and environmentally friendly, energy-saving and efficient, and having strong peak shaving capabilities. It has great potential for development, and the improvement of internal and external environment has also brought good opportunities for the development of China's gas power industry.

　　2016年，美國天然氣首次超過煤炭，成為最主要的發(fā)電來源。供應(yīng)充裕、價格低廉以及清潔高效成為美國天然氣發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)近年來快速發(fā)展的重要動力。對于我國來說，盡管在國家政策支持下，氣電已經(jīng)成為我國天然氣利用的重要領(lǐng)域，但在我國整個電力結(jié)構(gòu)中的比例還很小，煤電和水電仍是我國發(fā)電的主要來源。2016年，我國氣電裝機(jī)容量7008萬千瓦，僅占總發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量的4.3%；氣電發(fā)電量1881億千瓦時，僅占總發(fā)電量的3.1%。

　　In 2016, natural gas surpassed coal for the first time in the United States, becoming the primary source of electricity generation. Abundant supply, low prices, and clean and efficient have become important driving forces for the rapid development of the natural gas power generation industry in the United States in recent years. For China, although gas power has become an important field for natural gas utilization with the support of national policies, its proportion in the entire power structure is still very small, and coal-fired and hydroelectric power are still the main sources of electricity generation in China. In 2016, China's installed capacity of gas and electricity was 70.08 million kilowatts, accounting for only 4.3% of the total installed capacity of power generation; The gas-fired power generation capacity is 1881 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for only 3.1% of the total power generation.

　　與美國相比，我國氣電在電力產(chǎn)業(yè)中僅能發(fā)揮補(bǔ)充調(diào)解的功能。一方面，這與我國氣電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展較晚有關(guān)；另一方面，也體現(xiàn)出我國氣電產(chǎn)業(yè)仍存在一些尚未理順的問題。一是國家還未出臺氣電總體戰(zhàn)略，氣電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展更多是在天然氣利用政策以及能源發(fā)展規(guī)劃中提及，國家對氣電的態(tài)度也因能源市場環(huán)境變化而經(jīng)常改變。二是氣電經(jīng)濟(jì)性還不高，一些進(jìn)口氣源合約價格過高，天然氣輸配層級過多，導(dǎo)致發(fā)電企業(yè)利潤空間下降，天然氣價格管制很難反映市場供需關(guān)系。三是氣電上網(wǎng)制度還不完善，發(fā)電成本與上網(wǎng)電價間缺乏聯(lián)動機(jī)制，上網(wǎng)電價沒有對氣電的環(huán)保因素進(jìn)行必要補(bǔ)償，這與國家加快清潔能源利用的初衷是不相吻合的。

　　Compared with the United States, China's gas and electricity can only play a supplementary and mediating role in the power industry. On the one hand, this is related to the relatively late development of China's gas and electricity industry; On the other hand, it also reflects that there are still some unresolved issues in China's gas and electricity industry. One reason is that the country has not yet formulated an overall strategy for gas and electricity, and the development of the gas and electricity industry is mainly mentioned in natural gas utilization policies and energy development plans. The country's attitude towards gas and electricity also frequently changes due to changes in the energy market environment. Secondly, the economic viability of gas and electricity is not yet high. Some imported gas source contracts have excessively high prices, and there are too many levels of natural gas transmission and distribution, resulting in a decrease in profit margins for power generation companies. Natural gas price control is difficult to reflect market supply and demand relationships. The third issue is that the system for connecting gas and electricity to the grid is not yet perfect, and there is a lack of linkage mechanism between power generation costs and grid electricity prices. The grid electricity prices have not provided necessary compensation for the environmental factors of gas and electricity, which is inconsistent with the original intention of the country to accelerate the utilization of clean energy.

　　盡管在產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展過程中面臨諸多困難，但氣電具備清潔環(huán)保、節(jié)能高效、調(diào)峰能力強(qiáng)等優(yōu)點，具有較大發(fā)展?jié)摿?，?nèi)外部環(huán)境的改善也為我國氣電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展帶來了良好機(jī)遇。

　　Despite facing many difficulties in the process of industrial development, gas and electricity have the advantages of clean and environmentally friendly, energy-saving and efficient, and strong peak shaving ability, which have great development potential. The improvement of internal and external environment also brings good opportunities for the development of China's gas and electricity industry.

　　一是經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展的環(huán)保要求使我國天然氣發(fā)展空間更加廣闊。以煤炭為主的一次能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)已經(jīng)給我國環(huán)境造成了極大破壞，尤其是近年來霧霾越來越嚴(yán)重。無論是對內(nèi)提升經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展質(zhì)量，還是對外展示節(jié)能減排負(fù)責(zé)任的大國形象，我國都必須大力推行清潔發(fā)展。與煤炭、石油相比，天然氣更加清潔高效;與新能源相比，天然氣更具發(fā)展規(guī)模、經(jīng)濟(jì)性更強(qiáng)、利用技術(shù)更完善?！短烊粴獍l(fā)展“十三五”規(guī)劃》提出到2020年天然氣發(fā)電裝機(jī)規(guī)模達(dá)到1.1億千瓦以上，占發(fā)電總裝機(jī)比例超過5%;《關(guān)于加快推進(jìn)天然氣利用的意見(征求意見稿)》提出到2020年天然氣發(fā)電總裝機(jī)規(guī)模達(dá)到1.5億千瓦，天然氣發(fā)電用氣約1000億立方米。與2016年相比，“十三五”期間我國天然氣發(fā)電新增裝機(jī)容量將達(dá)到0.4至0.8億千瓦，增幅為57%至114%。

　　Firstly, the environmental protection requirements of economic and social development have made the development space of natural gas in China even broader. The primary energy consumption structure dominated by coal has caused great damage to China's environment, especially in recent years when smog has become increasingly severe. Whether it is improving the quality of economic development internally or showcasing a responsible national image of energy conservation and emission reduction externally, China must vigorously promote clean development. Compared to coal and oil, natural gas is cleaner and more efficient; Compared with new energy, natural gas has a larger development scale, stronger economy, and more complete utilization technology. The 13th Five Year Plan for Natural Gas Development proposes that by 2020, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation will reach over 110 million kilowatts, accounting for more than 5% of the total installed capacity of power generation; The "Opinions on Accelerating the Utilization of Natural Gas (Draft for Comments)" proposes that by 2020, the total installed capacity of natural gas power generation will reach 150 million kilowatts, and the gas consumption for natural gas power generation will be about 100 billion cubic meters. Compared with 2016, the newly installed capacity of natural gas power generation in China during the 13th Five Year Plan period will reach 40 to 80 million kilowatts, an increase of 57% to 114%.

　　二是全球天然氣市場供應(yīng)寬松使我國天然氣進(jìn)口來源更加豐富。近年來，油氣勘探開發(fā)技術(shù)不斷取得突破，美國“頁巖氣革命”使全球天然氣供需格局發(fā)生深刻變化。全球油氣市場已經(jīng)由供應(yīng)偏緊轉(zhuǎn)換為供應(yīng)寬松，由賣方市場轉(zhuǎn)換為買方市場。由于供應(yīng)充裕，2014年以來，全球天然氣價格持續(xù)下降，目前已處于歷史低位。今年2月，東南亞LNG基準(zhǔn)價格約為1.73元/立方米，僅為2014年價格高點的37%。由于全球油氣需求持續(xù)低迷，可以預(yù)見天然氣價格近期內(nèi)持續(xù)低位徘徊的可能性較大。天然氣價格大幅下降將有效減少氣電的原料成本劣勢。供應(yīng)充裕的市場格局還使一些產(chǎn)氣大國天然氣出口預(yù)期增強(qiáng)，這為我國豐富進(jìn)口氣來源，彌補(bǔ)國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量缺口提供了更多選擇。隨著天然氣供應(yīng)充裕，在民用天然氣能夠得到充分保障后，國家可能會調(diào)整氣電定位，從調(diào)峰發(fā)電逐步轉(zhuǎn)向基荷發(fā)電，并將氣電從可中斷用戶變成連續(xù)供應(yīng)用戶。一旦如此，不僅能夠提高氣電效率，也能降低發(fā)電成本，對提升氣電經(jīng)濟(jì)性具有極大好處。

　　Secondly, the loose supply in the global natural gas market has made China's natural gas import sources more abundant. In recent years, breakthroughs have been made in oil and gas exploration and development technology, and the "shale gas revolution" in the United States has brought profound changes to the global natural gas supply and demand pattern. The global oil and gas market has shifted from tight supply to loose supply, and from a seller's market to a buyer's market. Due to abundant supply, global natural gas prices have continued to decline since 2014 and are currently at historic lows. In February of this year, the benchmark price of LNG in Southeast Asia was about 1.73 yuan/cubic meter, only 37% of the high point in 2014. Due to the continued sluggish global demand for oil and gas, it is foreseeable that natural gas prices are likely to remain low in the near future. The significant decrease in natural gas prices will effectively reduce the disadvantage of raw material costs for gas and electricity. The market pattern of abundant supply has also increased the expectations for natural gas exports in some gas producing countries, providing more choices for China to enrich its sources of imported gas and make up for the domestic production and consumption gap. With abundant natural gas supply and sufficient guarantee of civilian natural gas, the country may adjust the positioning of gas and electricity, gradually shifting from peak load power generation to base load power generation, and transforming gas and electricity from interruptible users to continuous supply users. Once this is done, it can not only improve the efficiency of gas and electricity, but also reduce the cost of power generation, which has great benefits for improving the economy of gas and electricity.

　　三是油氣體制改革使我國天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)更加市場化。油氣體制改革作為我國深化改革的重要內(nèi)容，大幕已經(jīng)拉開。特別是去年以來，天然氣市場化改革進(jìn)程加快。國家發(fā)改委和能源局先后頒布了多個文件推進(jìn)改革，涉及價格體制改革、市場結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化等多個方面，主要包括化肥用氣價格市場化、加強(qiáng)地方天然氣輸配管理、油氣管網(wǎng)設(shè)施信息公開、儲氣設(shè)施價格市場化等。對我國未來油氣格局變化具有重要意義的油氣體制改革具體方案很快就要推出。通過改革，預(yù)期天然氣氣源競爭將更加激烈，輸配層級將有效壓縮，這些都能有效降低氣電成本。另外，上海和重慶石油天然氣交易中心投入運(yùn)行，為天然氣價格市場化提供了開放的交易平臺。改革提速將為我國天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展逐步掃清體制障礙，有利于形成更有效率的產(chǎn)業(yè)體系，天然氣發(fā)電也將從中受益。

　　Thirdly, the reform of the oil and gas system has made China's natural gas industry more market-oriented. The reform of the oil and gas system, as an important part of China's deepening reform, has already begun. Especially since last year, the process of natural gas marketization reform has accelerated. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have successively issued multiple documents to promote reforms, involving price system reform, market structure optimization, and other aspects, mainly including market-oriented pricing of fertilizer gas, strengthening local natural gas transmission and distribution management, information disclosure of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, and market-oriented pricing of gas storage facilities. The specific plan for the reform of the oil and gas system, which is of great significance to the future changes in China's oil and gas landscape, will soon be launched. Through reform, it is expected that competition for natural gas sources will become more intense, and the level of transmission and distribution will be effectively compressed, which can effectively reduce the cost of gas and electricity. In addition, the Shanghai and Chongqing Oil and Gas Trading Centers have been put into operation, providing an open trading platform for the marketization of natural gas prices. The acceleration of reform will gradually clear institutional barriers for the development of China's natural gas industry, which is conducive to the formation of a more efficient industrial system, and natural gas power generation will also benefit from it.

　　四是國家明確鼓勵天然氣分布式能源項目的發(fā)展?！短烊粴獍l(fā)展“十三五”規(guī)劃》提出鼓勵發(fā)展天然氣分布式能源等高效利用項目，有序發(fā)展天然氣調(diào)峰電站。在基荷和分布式兩種氣電模式上，國家更青睞天然氣分布式能源項目。一是天然氣分布式能源一般采用冷、熱、電三聯(lián)供形式，通過氣電余熱制熱或制冷，能大幅提高能源利用效率，且清潔低污染；二是天然氣分布式能源項目一般規(guī)模較小，非常適合于商場、醫(yī)院、園區(qū)等單體設(shè)施的供電、供熱和制冷；三是天然氣分布式能源項目發(fā)電可以采用“并網(wǎng)不上網(wǎng)”的模式，發(fā)電自用，避免了與煤電、水電上網(wǎng)競爭。

　　Fourthly, the country explicitly encourages the development of natural gas distributed energy projects. The 13th Five Year Plan for Natural Gas Development proposes to encourage the development of efficient utilization projects such as distributed energy for natural gas, and to develop natural gas peak shaving power stations in an orderly manner. In terms of both base load and distributed gas power modes, the country prefers natural gas distributed energy projects. Firstly, natural gas distributed energy generally adopts the form of triple supply of cooling, heating, and electricity, which can greatly improve energy utilization efficiency and be clean and low polluting by heating or cooling through gas electricity waste heat; Secondly, natural gas distributed energy projects are generally small-scale and very suitable for power supply, heating, and cooling of individual facilities such as shopping malls, hospitals, and parks; Thirdly, natural gas distributed energy projects can adopt a "grid connected without grid connected" mode for power generation, which is for self use and avoids competition with coal-fired and hydroelectric power grid connected.

　　我國推動天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)加快發(fā)展的決定由來已久，但近年來始終不及預(yù)期，很難認(rèn)為我國天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展已經(jīng)進(jìn)入“黃金時期”，最本質(zhì)的原因還在于市場機(jī)制不健全。而今，外部供應(yīng)改善以及內(nèi)部改革預(yù)期為我國天然氣以及氣電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展創(chuàng)造機(jī)會。期待油氣體制改革能夠順應(yīng)外部市場改善的歷史機(jī)遇，推動我國天然氣和氣電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)入真正的“黃金時期”。

　　The decision to accelerate the development of China's natural gas industry has a long history, but in recent years it has always fallen short of expectations. It is difficult to believe that the development of China's natural gas industry has entered a "golden age", and the most fundamental reason is that the market mechanism is not sound. Nowadays, the improvement of external supply and the expectation of internal reforms have created opportunities for the development of China's natural gas and gas power industries. We hope that the reform of the oil and gas system can adapt to the historical opportunity of external market improvement and promote the development of China's natural gas and gas power industries into a true "golden age".